Disclaimer:

As you may have noticed if you read these articles week to week, I tend to bet the NFL early and CFB late. 2 reasons- 1) I do an NFL betting podcast twice a week so by the time I write this I’ve done significantly more NFL research than college (check out the Favorites below) and 2) The NFL is much more transparent with injuries so I find it best to wait until Friday or pre-College Gameday on Saturday morning to place my CFB wagers. If you wait until the sob stories on GameDay, you are screwed, don’t even bother betting at that point. Let’s get into it!

Added disclaimer, with the NBA starting up this week and the CFB slate being what it is, I've taken the week off from NCAA action. I find that its not a bad idea to find spots within all these seasons to step back and view the board wagerless, this feels like that right time - especially as I dive into early season NBA betting. Once my attention is split in too many directions, I just start making bets to have action, not to make money - and that's when we fail people! NFL plays below...

Steelers +3- I love this spot for the Steelers. 10 days to prepare. GB off a western time zone road game to go over to Pennsylvania. The Packers have not looked dominant at all as of late. And then of course you have Aaron Rodgers who is going to be extra dialed in for this one, he’s been playing really well on top of it, love the way the offense looks…all the sudden, that’s the more trustworthy unit for the Steelers. Tomlin has been listed as a home underdog in 32 games as coach of the Steelers, he is 19-13 SU and 22-7-3 ATS as a home dog. After the Steelers defense allows 30+ pts on defense under Tomlin, they are 29-12-1 ATS (71%) in their next game. Green Bay is 0-6 SU in Pittsburgh against the Steelers over the last 50 years. 

Saints +4.5- The injuries are catching up to Tampa. Short week, now they go on the road, in division. Baker has struggled in these spots – 4-5 ATS as a favorite in the NFC South. Rattler threw 3 picks last week – hadn’t thrown one since week 3. If he can just play a safe and simple style of QB – I think they can move on Tampa – Olave has been playing some really good football. I can’t quit the Saints.

Texans -1- Everything points Houston here. SF sell high, Houston buy low. SF off a big win in prime-time, Houston loses in prime-time – and Houston has been awful in these night game spots, look back to that game against the Bucs. I think a lot of people are going to look @ this line and say “how in the world are the Texans favored” – I know I did. But it makes sense. My power rating has this on market at -1.5 – Houston’s defense is allowing 14.7ppg. Shanahan’s teams – last 9 times they faced a defense allowing 17ppg or less…1-8 ATS. He’s awful off a win. All signs point Houston.

6-point Teaser (-125): Falcons -1 + Cowboys +9.5- I don't trust Atlanta enough to give 7 points against anyone just yet, that team is so hot and cold but they are a BRUTAL matchup for the Dolphins. Bijan and co should run all over this team. The Falcons have been much better at home too - 29ppg at home over the last 2, 5pgg on the road. So I'll take them to win. Pairing that with Dallas who has the offense and the leg with Brandon Aubrey to hang with an overrated Broncos team. +3.5 isn't a bad idea either but I can't make a bet with 83% of bettors on the same side, too many signals pointing to Denver as the sharper side...buying points feels like the way to go.