Disclaimer:

As you may have noticed if you read these articles week to week, I tend to bet the NFL early and CFB late. 2 reasons- 1) I do an NFL betting podcast twice a week so by the time I write this I’ve done significantly more NFL research than college (check out the Favorites below) and 2) The NFL is much more transparent with injuries so I find it best to wait until Friday or pre-College Gameday on Saturday morning to place my CFB wagers. If you wait until the sob stories on GameDay, you are screwed, don’t even bother betting at that point. Let’s get into it!

Lean: Louisville +13.5 @ Miami- Weird Friday night game in the ACC, where do I sign up?! Last year, Louisville went toe to toe with Miami 52-45, now, I don’t expect those sorts of fireworks but its an example of the fact that the talent gap between these 2 teams is not that severe. Miami has been winning and covering week after week, this is such a let down spot though, sleepy part of their schedule, off a bye week – yes they have extra rest, but they are in coast mode right now, I think they end up in a dog fight here. I haven’t bet this game individually yet, but I did sprinkle a 2-leg parlay with this game and the next one…

Lean: Ole Miss +7.5 @ Georgia- Number is too big for the current state of Georgia football. If I trusted their defense, I’d be on the Bulldogs, but they give up too many sustained drives and too many points. Ole Miss has a QB who is electric once again, Trinidad Chambliss has changed the direction of the Rebels' year, and I think they have a real shot to go in and pull off the upset against a Georgia team that probably should’ve lost to Auburn last week.

Bet: Raiders +11.5 vs KC- I was surprised to see this touch 12…its back down to 11.5. The Raiders always play the chiefs well. It was nice to see some signs of life from Geno and the Raiders, even if it was against the titans. But this is more of a fade of KC, selling high now that everyone appears to be bought back in. major letdown spot against a division rival, over 10 points, this is an auto-play.

Bet: Browns ML vs Phins- The Dolphins are on the verge of implosion, its honestly impressive how they’ve still been able to cover spreads, but this is a bad team and this is a bad matchup for them. The Browns want to get after the QB and the run the ball and the dolphins can’t stop either of those. They have the 2nd worst pass blocking grade in the NFL and they’ve allowed the most yards per game to the running back position. Dillon Gabriel should feel comfortable enough to win and cover the #. Plus, the Dolphins are getting over 70% of the bets…major red flag, there should not be this much public confidence in this team.

Lean: Lions -5 vs Bucs- I like buying low on Detroit. I know the secondary is a mess but I feel like that’s mitigated by the fact that the Bucs WR’s are hurt. The Bucs are a real team but they’ve been getting by with some quirky victories. Even in a comfortable win vs SF, they didn’t pull away until Fred Warner (the anchor of the 49ers defense) left the game. Campbell and Goff 11-0 ATS last 11 games following a loss.