As you may have noticed if you read these articles week to week, I tend to bet the NFL early and CFB late. 2 reasons- 1) I do an NFL betting podcast twice a week so by the time I write this I’ve done significantly more NFL research than college (check out the Favorites below) and 2) The NFL is much more transparent with injuries so I find it best to wait until Friday or pre-College Gameday on Saturday morning to place my CFB wagers. If you wait until the sob stories on GameDay, you are screwed, don’t even bother betting at that point. Let’s get into it!

Lean: Indiana +7.5 @ Oregon- Curt Cignetti has been a spread covering SOB since taking over for the Hoosiers, however, he’s 0-2 ATS against the biggest and baddest he’s gone up against in the past year. Ohio State and ND, both of which played one another in the National title game for what its worth. But by all accounts this Indiana team is better than last year’s, and Fernando Mendoza is the biggest reason why – 16 touchdowns, just 1 interception. He should be able to do enough in Eugene to keep it close.

Lean: Texas -1.5 vs OU- Rivalry games are a different breed. And while Texas hasn’t lived up to the hype, not even close, this is the greatest buy low point of the season. The key to this one is, are you willing to bet that John Mateer isn’t going to play? If he’s announced as OUT this # is an incredible bargain, if he’s in, you are sitting on a bad #. That’s why this is in the lean category. I get the feeling the Heisman hopeful will give it a go, so I’ll wait for the better #, but I will 100% be on Texas if that is the case.

Bet: Saints +3.5 vs Pats- Selling high on the Pats after a prime-time win in Buffalo and a blow out win against the Panthers. The Pats are going to have a hard time in this favorites roll unless they are blowing teams out, because they can’t run, so they have a hard time salting the clock and wearing you down in that fashion. The Saints run defense happens to be one of their strengths, so I don’t see that aspect of their game getting much better here. I just think the Saints are scrappy, they’re good enough to keep it close – pats are overvalued. Another luck diff of 16 in favor of the Saints.

Bet: Packers -14 vs Bengals- The Bengals have the worst point differential in the NFL (-71). Packers off a bye and at home, love that. And Cincy can’t run the ball, 3.1 YPC, that’s dead last in the NFL. So the Packers can just pin their ears back and tee off on Old Joe Flacco who will be running a rudimentary offense since he just joined the team earlier this week! The Packers should be getting some help on the o-line, Aaron Banks and Zach Tom both practiced on Wednesday. Smash spot for GB.

Bet: Panthers +3 vs Cowboys- My new-fangled power ratings make this Cowboys -1. So I like that first and foremost. But as I’ve mentioned, my numbers are far from gospel. Its more of a guide to get me pointed in the right direction. The Cowboys are playing their 3rd road game in their past 4 games, big divisional matchup with Washington on deck…Carolina is parked at home, we’ve got a Rico Dowdle revenge game (kidding, sort of)…the Cowboys have the worst graded run D in the NFL – taking on a guy that just rumbled for 200 yards and used to play for the team. Its at least enough to get me to the window.