Lean: Texas -6.5 @ Florida- I’m done betting on this Gators team and it might be time to get my money back. Texas is coming off a bye (so is Florida to be fair) and the Gators are still dealing with a bunch of injuries…d-line, wide receiver, even DJ Lagway was in a walking boot recently. Obviously, the vibes are way off in Gainesville and I fear that as bad as its been, the bottom hasn’t completely fallen out yet. Also, Steve Sarkisian has proven to be a pretty good road cover, as long as you can ignore the opener against Ohio State. Haven’t bet it yet, but I’ve got my finger on the button.

Lean: UCF +5.5 vs Kansas- I was wrong about the Knights last week but Tayven Jackson also went down with an injury early in the game, on the road, against a desperate Kansas State team…so I guess we’ll never really know. The lean portion of this is all about Jackson’s health, I’m not backing the Knights unless he’s the QB. But Kansas isn’t in great shape, they just lost to Cincinnatti at home, and they’ve got their biggest game of the season (Texas Tech) on deck, potential lookahead spot for the Jayhawks.

Bet: Vikings -3.5 vs Browns- A rookie QB getting his first NFL start overseas against a blitz-happy Brian Flores defense and a team that’s been parked across the pond for 2 weeks? Yeah…this is an auto-play, I had this one circled a week ago. Buyer beware, it looks like sharp money is coming in on Cleveland, but I’ll remain steadfast and stubborn in my prediction. Vikings should win this one 13-3.

Bet: Jets +2.5 vs Cowboys- Dak has typically done well against bad teams in his career, the problem is, I think the Cowboys are a bad team too. The Jets showed on MNF that they can move the football with Justin Fields @ QB. He’s now played 3 games and the 2 where he wasn’t facing the Buffalo Bills, the offense has been electric. They put up 400 yards on the Dolphins, and while the Phins D is bad, the Cowboys might be worse. 2.5 feels like a gift.

Bet: Broncos +4 @ Eagles- Love this one. The more I sit and think about how the Eagles have slid into week 4 undefeated, the more I love this bet. They were CeeDee Lamb dropped passes away from losing week 1, Travis Kelce bobble in week 2, the Rams blowing a 19 point lead in week 3, and then more special teams shenanigans in week 4 @ a beat up Tampa team. Denver is on a short week and Bo Nix hasn’t looked amazing yet, but I am running to the window on this one. Something to consider, the Eagles defense only has five sacks through four games, if Nix can feel comfortable – the defense will keep them close.

Side note: Still sorting out how I feel about Miami/FSU. The analysts seem to like the over, can’t fault them there, but I’m undecided on that one for now.