Lean: Virginia +7 vs FSU- Friday night showdown as FSU opens up conference play. Friday night games are squirrely in general, but add to that, the fact that FSU hasn’t played anybody since their home opener against Alabama. We don’t actually know that this FSU team is dominant enough to be a touchdown favorite on the road in conference play. Billy Connelly’s SP+ (a good starting point for the week to wrap your head around CFB power ratings) separates FSU/Virginia by just 5 points, if you account for home field, that’s another +2 for Virginia…meaning you are paying quite the hefty Friday night tax if you bet the Noles here.

Lean: Penn State -3.5 vs Oregon- Heavyweight fight #1 on Saturday night. My preseason bet to win the National title was Penn State, so some preseason bias is baked into this, which is why I haven’t quite laid the lumber yet, but chances are I’ll end up on the Nittany Lions. They had a bye week to prepare for this game, meanwhile Oregon had to contend with their in state rival Oregon State last week. I feel like the sportsbooks are telling us something by not offering the -3, they are laying the bait for Oregon bettors, and I’m not gonna take it.

Bet: Bama vs Georgia o52.5- I learned something in watching Georgia/Tennessee, Bulldogs games are going to be goofy this year. They are not the defense they once were, but Gunner Stockton is more than effective as a passer, in fact, with a big game, I think he’ll zoom to the top of the Heisman odds. Last year when these 2 SEC behemoths met, they scored a combined 75 points. Feels weird in this rivalry, but that’s much more who both programs are at this stage.

Bet: Colts vs Rams o49.5- Another over?! I don’t even know myself anymore. The Colts have been great, minor fraud alert, but I’m also concerned about the way the Rams lost that game to the Eagles last week, they could be mentally broken after that one. The one thing I can trust on both sides is the offense. Puka Nacua has been the best WR in football so far through 3 games, racking up 333 yards receiving, and the Colts have the leading rusher in football in Jonathan Taylor. Also, the Colts rank dead last in the NFL at stopping teams from converting first downs, and they have zero stops in the red zone. Over city in this one.

Bet: Lions -8.5 vs Browns- We’re already seeing this number tilt in the direction of the Lions, and for good reason, the Browns just had the win of their lives against GB and the Lions home field advantage of the past couple of seasons has been the elite of the elite. Just the run in general with the combo of Campbell/Goff - After Monday Night Football, the Lions are now covering 70% of their regular season games since 2021. The Browns D-line does scare me a bit, but this feels like a major let down spot for Cleveland.

Bet: Panthers ML @ Patriots (+213): Who in the world are the Pats to be giving 5.5 points?! This spread makes no sense to me but I figure I’m either all the way right or all the way wrong on this one, so I’ll take the Panthers @ 2-1 odds to just win the game outright. Fun fact btw: Since 1978, the spread only comes into play 83% of the time. Meaning that favorites win and cover or dogs just win outright 83% of the time. Checks out too, just last week the spread was only a factor in 81% of the 16 games played.  

Bet: 49ers -3.5 vs Jags- The Jags have wins over the Panthers and the Texans, with a loss to the Bengals/Jake Browning. This is one of the fakest 2-1 teams in the NFL. The defense has been great, but this will be the biggest test of the season. Jax ranks 2nd to last in receiving grade and dead last in special teams - a chance Purdy plays too. This # will kick up closer to 6 if he plays.