For those who have clicked on this, you've probably at least taken a peak at my former website ZoneHeadsMedia.com - I recently shut that site down to further consolidate where I try and send all of you on a daily and weekly basis. Not trying to overstate the following here, I don't care if its one of you or one-hundred of you, I felt like I was pulling the audience down too many tunnels. So I still love putting pen to paper about my betting exploits and this is where I'll be placing those thoughts moving forward. Thanks for indulging my explanation, now here's what you came for:

(also, feel free to follow me on the Action Network app, you can find me under @BKPicks, I log every single bet I make in every single sport I bet on via that app)

Lean- UCF -6.5 vs UNC: I’m not sure the Tar-Heels are a very good football team. They got blasted by TCU in the opener and they’ve had a couple of wins since, but they only put up 20 against Charlotte, and one of their WR’s just entered the portal. Feels messy for ol’ Belichick. Meanwhile, the Knights had an extra week to prepare, and it’s the Space Game…c’mon. But I’m not sure UCF is all that good either, a win over NC A&T means absolutely nothing to me. Also, there’s the factor of their o-line coach being hospitalized, no idea how to quantify that positively or negatively – you can spin it as they are motivated to win for their coach, or that they are distracted and had to miss a full day of practice. Too many questions for me, I’ll bet it live and hope to be on the Knights.

Lean- Florida +7.5 @ Miami- Sometimes we overcomplicate betting. Buy low, sell high…that’s the name of the game. Well, there’s no better example of that than this game right here. Everyone is telling Miami how great they are, everyone’s pockets are nice and fat betting on them, and here come the Gators off 5 interceptions from their supposedly “star” QB. Florida and Miami are probably, in reality, about a field goal apart in terms of quality, add a couple of points for home field advantage…and you still don’t get to -7.5 for Miami. Bloated number. I haven’t bet it yet, but likely will.

Lean- Utah -3 vs TT- As you can see, feeling quite indecisive with my CFB bets. I really like both of these teams, I bought a ticket preseason on the Red Raiders to win the conference championship so it would actually boost that ticket’s value to see TT go in and get the straight up W. But, Utah has an incredible home field, one of the best in CFB, they’re a smooth 3-0 ATS to start the season and I think they have a slight edge at the most important position. Devon Dampier is electric – 73% comp rate, 8 total touchdowns, 6 yards per run, and zero turnovers.

Bet- Bills -12 vs Dolphins- First things first, the Dolphins aren’t winning this game. That’s step 1, but step 2 is the more important step, can they cover the number? I don’t think we fully understand just yet how much this team is in complete disarray. They can’t block, they can’t defend, their star WR wants out, and their QB can’t stop giving the ball to the other team – it’s a bad combo. Tua is 5-14 straight up and 6-12-1 against the spread away from home vs. teams with a 50% win pct or higher. (per Evan Abrams from Action).

Bet- Bears -1.5 vs Cowboys- Chicago got blasted last week. They are bad. But they come home where they’ve been a much better team over the past few seasons, in fact, over the past 5 years they are top 10 in the NFL in terms of their home/road splits. A trend worth following for week 3 is to bet teams that are trying to avoid going down 0-3, specifically when they play teams that are 1-1, meaning they’re good, but not one of the best out there. Via VSiN.com - Teams that start 0-2 SU are 31-27 SU and 40-17-1 ATS (70.2%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010 (betting the TITANS too for that same reason)

Bet- Patriots +1 vs Steelers- Fun fact. Pittsburgh’s last win outright on the road against the Patriots coming back in 2008, with a 0-4 SU/ATS mark since then. That’s not why I’m betting them, its just a nice nugget. I feel like the Pats are a team that actually as some life, I love what I saw from Drake Maye last week, even Rhamondre Stevenson looked good – and I get it, that was against Miami, but I don’t know if you’ve seen this but Pittsburgh is just as bad on that side of the ball. Pittsburgh is 29th in the league in scoring defense (31.5 ppg allowed) and 31st in defensive success rate (50.4 percent). Bad offense + bad defense and a coach that can’t beat NE, not a deserving favorite, I’ll take the dog.

Bet- Giants +6 vs KC Chiefs- The Chiefs have struggled to cover big numbers ever since they slowed down their operation offensively, catching nearly a touchdown against a team that has a respectable pass rush and an offense that can clearly move the ball (they put up 500 yards of offense a week ago) – it honestly wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants won this football game, I know KC is 0-2 and they’re desperate, but this team has very little redeemable qualities not named Patrick Mahomes right now. Gimmie the dog in prime-time.

(Also, catch me 3x a week on the Favorites Podcast along with Kendra Middleton and Stuckey)