Few rivalries in the AFC South carry as much weight, emotion, and unpredictability as Jaguars–Colts, and this year’s Week 14 matchup amplifies the stakes even more. With both teams entering the game at 8–4 and sitting atop the division, Sunday’s battle in Jacksonville has all the makings of a season-defining clash.
This isn’t just another game. This is a fight for control of the AFC South.
And in Duval, they know exactly what that means.
The Jacksonville Jaguars enter this contest with confidence and rhythm. Winners of three straight and four of their last five, Jacksonville is playing some of its best football of the season. The offense looks sharper, the defense seems faster, and the energy inside EverBank Stadium has been climbing week after week.
On the other side, the Indianapolis Colts are trending in the opposite direction. After a blazing 7–1 start, Indy has fallen back to Earth, losing three of its last four. That skid has turned this matchup into a borderline must-win for a team fighting to keep its playoff hopes from slipping away.
The difference in momentum sets up a classic dynamic:
A confident contender vs. a cornered opponent.
And historically, Jacksonville has feasted in that scenario.
Here’s the thing: no matter how well the Colts play, no matter how talented their roster is, something strange happens to them when they land in Jacksonville.
Indy hasn’t won in Duval since 2014.
We’ve seen playoff hopes die here. We’ve seen top-seeded Colts teams collapse here. And year after year, EverBank Stadium becomes a house of horrors for Indianapolis.
So even with the Colts holding the all-time series lead, Jacksonville has turned this matchup into a home-field advantage they can rely on — especially with the division lead on the line.
Key Matchups to Watch
1. Turnovers Will Decide This Game
Both teams have shown a clear trend: when they take care of the football, they win. When they don’t, things fall apart quickly.
For Jacksonville, winning the turnover battle pushes their win probability sky-high. For the Colts, avoiding mistakes is essential to stopping their recent slide.
2. Jaguars Offense Finding Its Groove
Jacksonville’s offense has been steadily improving, with cleaner execution and more balance than earlier this season. If they can continue spreading the ball, protecting their quarterback, and mixing the run effectively, they’ll force the Colts’ defense into uncomfortable situations.
3. Colts’ Urgency
Teams with their backs against the wall can be dangerous. Indianapolis could come out aggressive — trick plays, heavy pressure, fourth-down attempts — but that desperation can just as easily turn into costly errors.
On paper, these teams are evenly matched.
But games aren’t played on paper — they’re played in Jacksonville.
With momentum, home-field energy, and a Colts team that historically melts in Duval, the Jaguars walk into this matchup with the edge. If they avoid turnovers and control the pace, they should be able to seize the division lead and keep rolling toward the postseason.