The Florida State Seminoles are a mere two days away from their season opener across the pond vs the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Dublin, Ireland, on Saturday at noon.
I will dive into various aspects of the game, from betting trends to matchups to key players to watch. Let's get right into it.
To start, we'll examine the betting trends surrounding this game using Fanduel odds:
- Florida State -10.5
- Over/Under 55.5
- ML -465/+350
Using the data of the last seven head-to-head matchups between Florida State and Georgia Tech, the Yellow Jackets are 4-3 (57%) on the money line, 1-5-1 (17%) against the spread (ATS), and the over/under at 4-3 (57%).
Florida State's Offense vs Georgia Tech's Defense
The DJ Uiagalelei era in Tallahassee will feature a new offensive approach while maintaining Norvell's fundamental schematic principles. I expect a downhill power run game, with play-action to attack downfield with the elite track athletes out wide.
Alabama transfer Malik Benson and LSU transfer Jalen Brown are slotted into the X and Z receiver roles respectfully, with Ja'Khi Douglas in the slot.
Brown is a former four-star recruit and high school state-qualifier athlete in track. Benson was another standout high school track athlete and former #1 overall JUCO prospect out of Hutchinson Community College before his time in Tuscaloosa.
Ja'Khi Douglas is the grizzled vet in that room. The senior has 42 receptions for 717 yards at 16.7 yards per catch with five touchdowns since 2020. Expect a deep ball on a slot fade to Douglas, the foundational passing concept in the Mike Norvell offense.
The Georgia Tech defense will be forced to play two high safeties to respect the speed out wide for the Seminoles, creating opportunities in the run that the offense will exploit.
The offensive line unit returns five players that record significant snaps in 2023 and adds transfer additions in Florida’s Richie Leonard IV and Alabama’s TJ Ferguson.
This unit has considerably higher quality depth compared to years past. Norvell listed 12 players on the two deep, with no Seminole repeating at more than one position.
The Seminoles' running back room is loaded with talent. Head coach Mike Norvell and RB coach David Johnson are high on the depth in this room, and I expect a healthy rotation of snaps.
Lawrance Toafili and Roydell Williams project to be the two feature backs.
Since his 2020 freshman campaign, Toafili has totaled 230 carries for 1,429 yards at 6.2 yards per carry with 12 touchdowns. LT is also a threat out of the backfield; in this same period, he has recorded 66 receptions for 688 yards with four touchdowns.
Roydell Williams arrived in Tallahassee as a transfer from Alabama. In four seasons in Tuscaloosa, Williams recorded 228 carries for 1,143 yards at 4.8 yards per carry.
The rest of the running back room bodes well depth-wise: Caziah Holmes, Jaylin Lucas, Samuel Singleton Jr., and freshman Kam Davis.
If my prediction that GT's secondary will feature a majority of two-high looks proves correct, I expect the Seminoles to put up numbers in the run game. In 2023, the Yellow Jackets ranked #130 nationally in rush defense and #127 in yards per carry, allowing 221 yards per game and 5.4 YPC.
GT will have to pick their poison. Do you load the box to stop the Seminoles' ground attack and create opportunities out wide for their receivers, or play two-high and get carved by the 'Noles backs?
The Yellow Jackets weren't a terrible pass-defense unit in 2023. The unit ranked #61 nationally in YPG at 225.8 but allowed a 42.95% opponent third down conversion rate overall, suitable for #103 in the country.
Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key brought in USC/Auburn DE Romello Height via the transfer portal, and the team returns DE Sylvain Yondjouen after a season-ending ACL tear in Week 1 against Louisville in 2023. Despite the additions, I don't see this providing enough quality depth if the Seminoles lean on the run game late in the second half.
Florida State's Defense vs Georgia Tech's Offense
Georgia Tech will be legit on offense; the Yellow Jackets' returning offensive production will set them up to take a step forward under second-year offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner.
GT ranks 7th nationally in returning production on that side of the ball, with the lone departures being OG Connor Scaglione and WR Dominick Blaylock.
The unit returns its starting quarterback, Haynes King, its leading rusher, Jamal Haynes, its top two pass catchers, Eric Singleton Jr. and Malik Rutherford, and four returning starters on the offensive line.
Haynes King was one of only two players in college football with at least 2,700 passing yards, 600 rushing yards, 25 touchdown passes, and five rushing touchdowns. He led the ACC in touchdown passes and ranked fourth in yards in the ACC for 2023.
Jamal Haynes finished fifth in the ACC in rushing yards after converting from receiver in 2023, totaling 156 carries for 931 yards at six yards per carry with seven touchdowns.
Eric Singleton’s 704 receiving yards and six touchdowns ranked in the top 10 in the conference last season.
Malik Rutherford was the second-leading pass catcher. He caught 44 passes for 462 yards, averaging 10.5 YPC with three touchdowns.
Offensively, they ranked #43 nationally in scoring at 29.7 PPG, #36 in yards per game at 411.8, and #39 in third down conversion percentage at 42.04% in 2023.
The Yellow Jackets featured one of the best rushing attacks in football last season, ranking #13 in yards per game at 198.4 and #13 in yards per carry at 5.2.
I expect Georgia Tech to lean on its run game and attempt to dominate time of possession to keep its defense off the field.
The Seminoles defense features many new faces yet returns several key contributors from the 2023 campaign: EDGE Patrick Payton, DT Darrell Jackson Jr, CB Fentrell Cypress, S Shyheim Brown, CB Kevin Knowles II, S K.J. Kirkland, and LB DJ Lundy.
My biggest question is in the linebacker room. Tatum Bethune and Kalen DeLoach are gone, leaving DJ Lundy as the veteran presence there.
Auburn transfer Cam Riley and Blake Nichelson will see significant snaps on Saturday. Many expected Riley to slide into a starting role in Adam Fuller's defense, but Nichelson's progression and development have earned the trust of Norvell and the company.
The 'Noles defensive line will again be good, but I believe in a different style. The unit ranked #6 nationally in sack production a year ago, but Florida State faithful should expect regression in that production with Jared Verse and Braden Fiske off to the NFL.
Patrick Payton will be the marquee edge rusher alongside Georgia transfer Marvin Jones Jr.
Joshua Farmer and Darrell Jackson return to the interior as one of the top run-stuffing duos in the conference.
The staff acquired depth pieces via the transfer portal in West Virginia's Tomiwa Durojaiye and Oregon State's Sione Lolohea.
The secondary projects to be the strength of Adam Fuller's defense in 2024. Fentrell Cypress, Shyheim Brown, Kevin Knowles II, and K.J. Kirkland are all returning.
The staff acquired Earl Little Jr. from Alabama and brought back Omarion Cooper from Colorado via the transfer portal. Davonte Brown and Conrad Hussey will play significant snaps at the safety spot opposite Shyheim Brown.
Do not be shocked if this secondary allows a few chunk plays early in the year as they build chemistry with new pieces, especially with the talent the Yellow Jackets have out wide.
Overall Takeaways
For Florida State, set the tone on the line of scrimmage and take care of the football. I expect the offense to potentially experiment with passing schematics early, given their confidence and matchup in the run game that I expect them to lean on in the second half.
Defensively, the Seminoles need to limit Justice Haynes' production on the ground and prevent Haynes King from extending plays; he is best when he can get outside the pocket and create. In 2023, Georgia Tech ranked #15 in sacks allowed, only allowing 15 on the year. I foresee Adam Fuller dialing up some unique blitz packages to get to King early.
For Georgia Tech, stay on schedule. If the offense can get the ground game going early and mitigate negative plays, it can move the chains. I expect tons of quick throws in the passing game with RPOs, jet sweeps, and screens to Rutherford and Singleton to stretch the Seminole defensive horizontally. In doing so, it'll open up the running game.
As I said earlier, defensively, pick your poison. If the defense can limit chunk runs from the Seminoles and contain the speed out wide, they should see success. The biggest concern I have for this unit is 3rd and short; with DJ Uiagalelei's colossal frame, expect tons of 12 and 13-personnel QB runs on pivotal downs.
If the Yellow Jackets can't get off the field, they do not have the quality depth to match up with the Florida State run game for all four quarters.
College football is here my friends. Enjoy the ride, and get your popcorn ready.