With the college football season starting this month, it's time to start making bold predictions and exploring underlooked storylines nationwide. The 2024 season will mark the inaugural year of the expanded 12-team playoff, and chaos will ensue.
Everyone knows that several schools in the SEC and BIG-10 will secure a seed in the postseason, with the top programs in the ACC and Big-12 following. But what team can come out of the Power Four that no one expects or talks about?
I'm buying as much stock in the UCF Knights out of the Big 12 as possible. Gus Malzahn enters his fourth season at the helm in Orlando, posting a 24-16 record in previous years. The program is entering its second season in the Big 12 after leaving the American Athletic Conference following the 2022 season.
The 2023 season started slowly, with the Knights beginning the year 3-5 and 0-5 in conference play. The Knights ended the year on a four-game winning streak in Big-12 play, including a 45-3 splattering over then-18th-ranked Oklahoma State in the Bounce House. They then lost to Georgia Tech in the Gasparilla Bowl to finish the year at 6-7.
The program has everything in place to be a Big-12 powerhouse, but what makes UCF a dark horse darling to make the college football playoff?
Let's start with Arkansas quarterback transfer KJ Jefferson. Jefferson is one of the most experienced signal-callers in the country. He signed with Arkansas in 2019 as a four-star prospect out of Mississippi. He redshirted in his first season and appeared in five games in 2020 with one start before taking over as the full-time starter in 2021. He's an iron man, having missed just two games since taking control.
Jefferson is an absolute specimen, clocking in at 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds. From 2021-2022, he accounted for 6,616 total yards and 60 touchdowns before having a season of regression in 2023. Arkansas struggled last season, the program's worst year under Sam Pittman since 2020. I'm confident the UCF staff will get Jefferson back on track. There couldn't be a more ideal fit for the Gus Malzahn offense.
Before Jefferson took his first snap for the Knights, Malzahn spoke about his new signal-caller at Big 12 Media Days on Wednesday, "Dual-threat guy," said Malzahn. "Physically, he's the closest thing to Cam (Newton) that I've had. He's like a running back. He throws a great deep ball. We're a run, play-action team with emphasis on throwing the ball downfield."
During the 2010 season, Malzahn served as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach on the Auburn staff, helping lead Newton to win the Heisman Trophy in a landslide before reigning victorious over the Oregon Ducks in the BCS title game.
The bright side for Jefferson? He doesn't have to be Cam Newton in the sense of single-handedly propelling his team to wins; he has high-quality talent and production around him on offense.
The offense will be built upon the three-headed monster in the backfield. Leading rusher RJ Harvey returns for his senior season in Orlando. In 2023, he ran for 1,416 yards at 6.3 yards per carry with 16 touchdowns. Peny Boone transferred in as a running back from Toledo. In 2023, he rushed for 1,400 yards at 7.2 yards per carry with 15 touchdowns. During his time in Fayetteville, Jefferson accumulated 1,876 yards with 21 touchdowns on the ground.
Malzahn spoke on the unit's identity being centered around attacking downfield with play action in tandem with the ground game. Last year's top pass catcher, Javon Baker, is gone, but second-leading receiver Kobe Hudson is back. In 2023, Hudson accumulated 900 yards at a whopping 20.5 yards per catch with eight touchdowns. Xavier Townsend also returns; he was the third-leading receiver with 325 yards and three touchdowns last season. Auburn transfer Ja'Varrius Johnson takes over the slot.
The offensive line is undergoing some reconstruction, but it should be a quality unit once again. Marcellus Marshall can play both tackle and guard, Caden Kitler is a solid center, and Western Kentucky transfer Wes Dorsey is projected to slide into one of the tackle spots. The offense ranked fourth nationally in total offense and at the top of the Big 12 in 2023, posting the third-ranked rushing offense in the nation, averaging 246.3 rushing yards per game.
Defensively, it will look different with the outgoing production and new staff. Ted Roof joins the staff as defensive coordinator, having spent time with Malzahn at Auburn during the championship run. "He's a three-time Broyles Award nominee and has had the No. 1 ranked rush defense in the conference at three different schools". Said Malzahn.
Roof spent the past two seasons in Norman as the defensive coordinator for the Oklahoma Sooners. In 2023, the Sooners ranked third nationally in turnovers forced per game (2.0), seventh in tackles for loss (7.54), and 14th in third-down defense.
The top two leading tacklers, linebackers Jason Johnson and Walter Yates III, are gone, as is the sack leader from a year ago, Tre'Mon Morris-Brash. Malachi Lawrence is back at defensive end; he was the second-leading pass rusher with 7.5 sacks in 2023.
UCF enters the fall with 24 transfers joining the program. Many will be depended upon to fill starting roles on defense. The defensive additions include DE Daylan Dotson (Tennessee-Martin), S Bryon Threats (Cincinnati), LB Xe'Ree Alexander (Idaho), S Ladarius Tennison (Ole Miss), LB Ethan Barr (Vanderbilt), and S/LB Deshawn Pace (Cincinnati).
Dotson dominated at Tennessee-Martin, tallying 34 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks the past two seasons with a 90.7 run grade per Pro Football Focus.
Threats made 19 starts for the Bearcats over the last two seasons, tallying 115 tackles, seven tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, four interceptions, and 12 pass breakups.
Alexander was the Vandals' highest-graded defensive player per Pro Football Focus, finishing the 2023 season with 75 tackles and four for loss.
Tennison split four seasons evenly between Auburn and Ole Miss. Malzahn described the former four-star recruit as an "NFL-type guy." In his two seasons at Ole Miss, he collected 94 tackles as a weakside linebacker; this staff views him as more of a boundary safety.
Barr was a two-time captain at Vanderbilt and is reuniting with former defensive coordinator and position coach Ted Roof in Orlando. During his senior season, Barr collected 55 tackles, including three for loss. The 2021 campaign was his best, with 85 tackles, seven pass breakups, and three interceptions.
Pace was a primary target for Malzahn and the company, having seen him in their matchups vs. Cincinnati in the last three seasons. In 46 games with the Bearcats, he tallied 247 tackles, 25.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, 14 pass breakups, and six interceptions.
The Knights' schedule is very favorable. In the season's first three weeks, they should go undefeated in matchups against New Hampshire, Sam Houston, and TCU.
They draw Colorado and Utah at home in the bounce house and face Florida, Iowa State, and West Virginia on the road. They are not slated to face Kansas, Kansas State, or Oklahoma State in the regular season.
UCF is currently the fourth odds-on favorite to win the Big 12 conference. With the mix of returning talent, portal acquisitions, and a favorable schedule, I expect UCF to compete for the conference title and be a dark horse to make the college football playoffs.