We've dove into the power four college football conferences already; now it's time to analyze the group of five and independent programs. The expanded postseason bracket grants an automatic bid to the highest-ranked conference champion from the likes of the Mountain West, American Athletic Conference, Sun Belt, Mid-American Conference, or Conference USA.
Independents, on the other hand, do not receive an automatic bid. Any independent program, such as Notre Dame, is disqualified from earning a first-round bye because there is no avenue to be a conference champion. We will examine them and the four G5 programs I expect to be in contention for the automatic bid into the college football playoff.
We'll stay in South Bend and start with the Fighting Irish. Marcus Freeman enters his third season as head coach, having gone 19-7 in the previous two seasons and winning two bowl games.
Notre Dame should be excellent. For years, the talking points surrounding South Bend have been that they are overrated, they get blown out in every playoff game, or they need to join a conference. For those who claim the Irish to be overrated, I ask you, what are they rated?
Outside of Penn State and Ole Miss, Notre Dame might be the program that benefits most from the expanded playoff format. They've appeared in the playoffs multiple times but have been torched every game. I think this year will be different.
We know they'll be defensively sound. It's Freeman's trademark as a coach. The unit returns star cornerback Benjamin Morrison to the secondary. He projects to be one of the first defensive backs taken in the upcoming NFL draft and will be one of the best defensive players in college football this season.
Xavier Watts at safety and Christian Gray at corner round out the secondary. The front seven will be elite; they return one of the best linebackers in the country, Jack Kiser. The defensive line trio of Howard Cross III, Rylie Mills, and Duke transfer RJ Oben will round out a loaded defensive unit.
Offensively, there are some question marks—particularly Riley Leonard at quarterback. Leonard transferred in from Duke, where he went 13-7 as the full-time starter and was one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country when healthy.
He missed time due to injury last season and only appeared in seven games, leaving the Florida State matchup after halftime. I've enjoyed watching Leonard play, but how realistic is it for him to return to that same production level before injury? Notre Dame will have a shot at anyone if he's back to form.
The pass-catching room should be better and more explosive. Mitchell Evans returns at tight end. An ACL tear cut his 2023 campaign short after eight games, yet he finished as the second-leading receiver for the Irish with 29 receptions for 422 yards. Notre Dame has a long track record of producing talent at the tight end position, and Evans could be next in line.
The Irish possess a nice blend of talent as a wide receiver. The staff was proactive in the transfer portal, bringing Clemson transfer Beaux Collins and Florida International transfer Kris Mitchell. Collins was a solid contributor to the Tigers from 2021-2023, grabbing 1,290 yards on 91 receptions with 11 touchdowns in 32 games. Mitchell brings a needed actual deep-threat element to the offense, especially with Chriss Tyree no longer with the program. Mitchell broke out last season, going for 1,118 yards on 64 receptions with seven touchdowns at FIU.
Notre Dame's schedule is extremely favorable, typical of their independence. The Irish open up with a road matchup in College Station against Texas A&M. This will be a fun storyline, as Riley Leonard played under Mike Elko during his time with the Duke Blue Devils. The rest of the way is very manageable. The Irish get Louisville and Florida State at home, with USC and Georgia Tech on the road.
If Riley Leonard is healthy and producing at the same level he did at Duke before the injury, I expect Notre Dame to contend for a berth in the playoff easily. We know Notre Dame's track record at the offensive line; I believe the staff is more than confident they can protect Leonard. The Irish are set up quite nicely with those weapons and defense in 2024.
We'll get into the G5 programs, starting with the Liberty Flames. Jamey Chadwell enters his second season at the helm in Lynchburg. His first season was a massive success; the Flames finished 13-1 with a Conference USA championship, the only loss being to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. They return loads of crucial talent and draw one of the easiest schedules nationally.
Liberty returns their star quarterback, Kaidon Salter. In 2023, he threw for 2,876 yards with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. He's a dynamic dual-threat athlete, rushing for 1,089 yards and 12 touchdowns. The offense returns its leading rusher, too, in Quinton Cooley at running back; in 2023, he ran for 1,400 yards at 6.3 yards per carry with 16 touchdowns. This duo in the backfield will be a tall task to defend again this season.
The receiving room will look slightly different, with a handful of players entering and exiting the program through the transfer portal, but in this offense, they should plug in seamlessly.
The defensive side of the ball returns several key producers: LB Jerome Jolly, S Brylan Green, DL Jay Hardy, DL CJ Bazile Jr., and DE TJ Bush. Last season, the unit ranked third in scoring (24.3 points per game) and second in total yards allowed (372.8) in CUSA.
The Flames' schedule is an absolute cakewalk. They are not slated to face a single team ranked in the preseason top 25 and draw Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky at home, with Middle Tennessee State and Appalachian State on the road.
Suppose the dynamic duo of Salter and Cooley stays healthy and produces anywhere close to their 2023 campaigns. In that case, Liberty should win the CUSA again and secure the G5 automatic bid to the college football playoff.
How about the Memphis Tigers? This program took a massive step forward in 2023 and returned almost all its critical offensive production. Ryan Silverfield enters his fifth season as head coach, leading the program to a 10-3 record last season, the best since Mike Norvell's final year before leaving for Florida State.
The team is set up to take another step forward in 2024, with SMU leaving for the ACC and Tulane losing many pivotal pieces, including its head coach, to last year's roster. They will be in contention for the AAC title with South Florida and UTSA.
Offensively, they will be electric. Sam Henigan is back at quarterback for his fourth season with the program, having thrown for 10,776 yards with 79 touchdowns and 25 interceptions in the three seasons prior. He was Second-Team All-AAC in 2023.
The skill room returns its top two pass catchers, Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee. Taylor led the team in receptions and receiving yards in 2023, with six games where he eclipsed 100 yards. Blankumsee led the team in yards per catch and touchdown receptions in 2023. The staff brought in another playmaker via the transfer portal from North Texas in Jyaire Shorter. Injuries hampered Shorter's ability to stay on the field with the Mean Green, but when healthy, he was an absolute mismatch on the perimeter, averaging 22.5 yards per catch in his career.
The offense does lose its leading rusher, Blake Watson, who is off to the NFL, but Mario Anderson and Sutton Smith's return will make for fun competition in camp as they hope to replace that production.
Defensively, they return several key starters, including their leading tackler from last year, linebacker Chandler Martin. The former Ohio State transfer at defensive end, CorMontae Hamilton, is poised for a bounce-back season as well.
The staff was proactive in the transfer portal regarding the secondary. In 2023, Memphis finished 124th in pass defense; a massive revamp was needed. At safety, transfer additions of A.J. Watts from UL-Monroe and Tahj Ra-El from Old Dominion will join cornerback Greg Rubin, giving them a solid trio on the backend.
Memphis draws a favorable schedule outside road matchups with Florida State and South Florida. They should be favored in every other game and compete for ten wins again.
If the offense produces anywhere close to last season and the defense takes a step forward, the Tigers will be at the top of the AAC and contending for a playoff berth via the automatic G5 bid.
If you like offensive football, I encourage you to watch South Florida. Alex Golesh enters his second season at the helm for the Bulls, leading the program to its first winning season last year for the first time since 2018 under Charlie Strong.
The program is eager to take a step forward in 2024. With the returning talent on offense and a weaker conference than in recent years, the Bulls are going to be fun to watch. Last year, the offense ranked 32nd in scoring (31.4) and 13th in total yards (460.8).
Byrum Brown is back at quarterback; this kid is electric. Last season, he threw for 3,292 yards with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. On the ground, Brown also ran for 809 yards with 11 touchdowns. With another year under Golesh, we should see him only improve. I expect him to be one of the most dynamic players in college football.
Nay'Quan Wright is a running back. 2023 he ran for 797 yards at 4.4 yards per carry with eight touchdowns. The offense returns its top two pass catchers, Sean Atkins and Naiem Simmons. The duo combined for 1,691 yards and 12 touchdowns during last season's campaign.
South Florida's defense will be the question. In 2023, the unit finished 110th in scoring (32.9) and 116th in yards allowed (435.8). The offense can keep them in every game, but the defense must evolve for this program to leap forward.
The Bulls don't draw the worst schedule in the world. They have a road game early in the year against Alabama and get Miami (FL) at home two weeks later. Outside of that, the home matchup with Memphis in early October is the only game they will be a true underdog in.
If the offense performs anywhere near its ability and the defense takes even a marginal step forward, South Florida could very well compete to win nine games in the AAC. Expect track meets and tons of explosive plays every week in Tampa.
The Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky will be electric to watch on offense once again. Tyson Helton enters his sixth season in Bowling Green, achieving eight or more wins in four of his first five seasons.
It doesn't matter who's at quarterback; this program puts up points and racks yards on offense. This year, it's the TJ Finley show. Last season at Texas State, Finley threw for 3,439 yards with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Western Kentucky has made this his fourth school since 2020, and he will look to lead the Hilltoppers to another winning season in 2024.
The schedule isn't groundbreaking. They open up on the road vs. Alabama, and the rest of the road schedule includes Boston College, Middle Tennessee State, and Liberty. They could quickly go undefeated at home, the only challenge being Jacksonville State to end the season.
Expect points—lots of them. If Finley stays healthy, the Hilltoppers should win eight to nine games, compete for the CUSA championship, and maybe even get a spot in the playoffs.
College football is an entirely different sport than it was just three or five years ago. The transfer portal era and the dawning of conference realignment have granted smaller programs, including those in G5, the ability to compete and contend with the Power Four. Notre Dame is practically a shoo-in to the playoff, yet the highest seed they can draw is number five.
We are guaranteed a G5 team to make it in. Will Liberty and Kaidon Salter march right through the CUSA again? Will Memphis strengthen its grip on the AAC with SMU gone and Tulane entering a down year? Can Alex Golesh and South Florida take a step forward? Can TJ Finley continue the trend of explosive quarterback play at Western Kentucky?
All these questions remain to be seen. It's no longer foreign to be in tap with conferences outside of the Power Four, and this year will be filled with tons of excitement and great games.