Oh yes, the Big-10. This conference will be at the top of college football in 2024 alongside the SEC with four newcomers from the West Coast: UCLA, USC, Washington, and Oregon. With the expanded playoff bracket, we may see four teams secure a berth.
We’ll begin with the newcomers, starting with the USC Trojans. Lincoln Riley enters his third season at the helm in the Coliseum, with a 19-8 record (9-5 in conference) over the previous two years.
Even with Caleb Williams off to the NFL draft, we know the Trojans will be great on offense with Riley as head coach. Defensively, how much can they improve under new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn? Lynn spent the 2023 season with the UCLA Bruins in the same role, and the 2021-2022 seasons with the Baltimore Ravens as a defensive backs coach.
This will be one of the biggest coordinator hires to watch this season, imagine if either of those Caleb Williams-led teams had at least an average defensive unit. They’d have been in the playoffs every year.
Miller Moss is slated to be the full-time starter at quarterback, the former four-star recruit in the 2021 class has already caught the attention of Trojan faithful. In the Holiday Bowl vs Louisville last season, Moss went 23-33 for 372 yards and six touchdowns with a 98.1 QBR.
The skill positions on offense will look different, the following players from the 2023 roster exited the program: WR Raleek Brown, WR Dorian Singer, WR Mario Williams, RB Darwin Barlow, and RB MarShawn Lloyd. The younger players on the roster will be heavily relied upon, especially returning WR Zachariah Branch.
The Trojans draw an interesting schedule. They open with a matchup against LSU in the Coliseum and go to Ann Arbor two weeks later. The road schedule is extremely favorable, the only true test being against Washington in early November. USC gets Penn State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Rutgers all at home.
If the program can take a step defensively, I fully expect USC to be competing with the rest of the conference for a spot in the expanded college football playoff bracket.
We know they’ll be good, but how good can the Oregon Ducks be? Dan Lanning has turned the program into a juggernaut since taking over in 2022. With the resources and recruiting pipelines this staff has, the sky's the limit for Oregon every season.
Bo Nix is gone at quarterback, but they brought in Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel and UCLA transfer Dante Moore. Gabriel will be the full-time starter in 2024, the dude has been a stud wherever he goes and I expect him to take an even further leap under offensive coordinator Will Stein.
The rest of the transfer portal class is spectacular, starting with former Texas A&M Aggie Evan Stewart. Stewart will join Tez Johnson on the outside, giving this offense another dynamic duo outside with Troy Franklin Jr. leaving for the NFL.
Defensively, the Ducks will be good again. Transfer portal acquisitions of Washington CB Jabbar Muhammad and UTSA CB Kam Alexander will look to reload this secondary. Lanning has been on fire with recruiting, hard not to with his recruiting pipelines, and having Phil Knight at your side with as much financial capital needed to acquire talent.
The schedule played out nicely, they might only lose one game. The first true test doesn’t come until a week six home matchup with Ohio State in Eugene. The only true road threat is the Michigan Wolverines in early November, outside of that this schedule is a cakewalk.
If Dillon Gabriel stays healthy and the offense builds chemistry quickly, I fully expect Oregon to be in the Big-10 conference championship and contending for a top seed in the college football playoff.
How does Washington fare after losing in the national championship and watching Kalen DeBoer leave for Alabama? I think they’ll be alright, there’s this guy named Jedd Fisch who took over as head coach, if you aren’t familiar with him now you will be soon.
Fisch is coming over from Arizona, where he revitalized the desert storm. Last year the program accomplished its first double-digit win season since 2010 and first winning record since 2017 that culminated in a 38-24 Alamo Bowl win over Oklahoma.
This roster does lose most of its key players from 2023, including virtually every offensive player. Fisch brought over 10 players from last year’s Arizona team, all projected to be starters for the Huskies this season.
Will Rogers is the projected full-time starter at quarterback, he comes to Washington via the transfer portal from Mississippi State. When healthy, Rogers is a player. As a full-time starter in 2021-2022, he threw for over 8,700 yards with 71 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
The Huskies schedule is in the middle. Their first true test comes in week five in a Friday night matchup on the road vs Rutgers, watch out for the Scarlet Knights. They get Michigan and USC at home with Iowa, Penn State, and Oregon all on the road. They are not slated to face Ohio State in the regular season.
We should expect a step-back overall from last year’s team, but it might not be as big as many people think. Jedd Fisch will be a hot commodity in the coaching carousel again next season, watch out for Florida if Billy Napier is relieved of his duties. If Will Rogers is healthy and the transfer class can mesh, the Huskies will be a tough out every week.
For the last of the newcomers, the lowly UCLA Bruins. This program will be at the bottom of the barrel this season in the Big 10. Chip Kelly is out as head coach, D’Anton Lynn is out as defensive coordinator, and Dante Moore transferred out of the program.
DeShaun Foster takes over the program, having served as the team’s RB coach since 2017. Foster spent six seasons in the NFL as a tailback, he has a daunting task ahead of him.
I’ll consider buying stock into the Bruins next season after a full offseason cycle of recruiting and transfer portal acquisitions. Until then, good luck watching this team.
This has to be the year for Ryan Day and Ohio State. There’s not much more to be said. Michigan is expected to take a step back with Harbaugh leaving for the NFL and this is the most talented roster they’ve had in Columbus during Day’s tenure.
The roster returns all of its key players aside from Marvin Harrison Jr. The staff excelled in the transfer portal bringing in Kansas State QB Will Howard, Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins, and Alabama DB Caleb Downs. Chip Kelly joins the staff and will serve as offensive coordinator after being relieved of his duties at UCLA.
The schedule is favorable. They get Iowa, Michigan, and Nebraska at home with Oregon, Michigan State, and Penn State all on the road. They are not slated to face Washington,
This is the year for Ryan Day to finally get over the hump and lead the Buckeyes to their first national title since the 2014 season. If he doesn’t, is it possible we see a change in 2025?
Does James Franklin finally manage to win a meaningful game at Penn State? This program has boasted tremendous defensive play for years but has never had the answers on offense.
Drew Allar is returning at quarterback, he’s shown flashes of his talent but seemed to consistently disappear in big moments last season vs Ohio State and Michigan. The hire of Andy Kotelnicki as offensive coordinator is another marquee coordinator hire to watch this season. Kotelnicki spent previous time at Kansas under Lance Liepold, I'd argue these guys know a thing or two about offensive football.
The staff acquired good talent in the portal, especially Ohio State transfer WR Julian Fleming and Georgia transfer DB A.J. Harris. Fleming will be the most dynamic athlete in that room the day he steps on campus, a position group in dire need of an alpha talent.
Defensively we know they’ll be good, even if Manny Diaz leaves to take over as the Duke head coach. The Nittany Lions have to be exponentially better on offense.
Luckily for Franklin, they draw a favorable schedule. They open up with a road matchup vs West Virginia in Morgantown, can’t sleepwalk through that matchup. The home schedule features Ohio State and Washington. The rest of the road schedule is very easy, the only test being against USC in the middle of October. They are not slated to face Oregon, Michigan, or Michigan State in the regular season.
If Kotelnicki can induce a spark offensively and Julian Fleming showcases any of the talent he displayed for the Buckeyes, Penn State should be in the college football playoff.
What should be expected of Michigan and Sherrone Moore? The Wolverines are projected to take a massive step right now, and rightfully so. Jim Harbaugh is gone as well as countless starters from the 2023 roster.
Defensively, we know they’ll be good, the Harbaugh philosophies will be embedded in that program for eternity. Offensively, I expect some potential growing pains. Alex Orji is slated to be the full-time starter at quarterback, a young and dynamic dual-threat athlete.
We saw Sherrone Moore beat Ohio State last season during Harbaugh’s NCAA suspension, what if he does it again? It likely means Ryan Day is out of a job.
The schedule isn’t entirely awful. They have an early week two test vs the Texas Longhorns in Ann Arbor, I’d back Texas in that matchup. The Wolverines get USC, Michigan State, and Oregon at home with Ohio State and Washington on the road.
I expect growing pains, but they’ll be tough out every week. With Donovan Edwards returning at running back and those playmakers on defense, It’s hard for me to imagine them winning less than nine games.
Staying in the Great Lakes State, let’s take a trip over to East Lansing and analyze the Michigan State Spartans. After the Mel Tucker situation went down, the administration had to find a head coach who could turn the program back around quickly. In steps Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith.
Smith did a sensational job in Corvallis, resurrecting his alma mater’s program and putting his name on the head coaching map. In the final two seasons, the Beavers went 18-7 and placed as high as 10th in the AP Poll under his leadership.
He’s been nationally recognized as an adept talent developer, a dire need in East Lansing. They’ve had quality athletes come through the program and had a phenomenal 11-2 run in 2021, but never the same consistency as the Mark Dantonio years.
The roster isn’t great, but Smith brought over two key transfers from Oregon State with him in QB Aidan Chiles and TE Jack Velling. Chiles is a former four-star dual-threat recruit and showcased his cannon for an arm in the games he played in 2023. He’ll be a stud playmaker.
The schedule could be worse. The Spartans get Ohio State, Iowa, and Rutgers at home with Oregon and Michigan on the road. They are not slated to face Penn State in 2024.
Don’t expect fireworks, but they’ll be in every game. Give Smith a full offseason cycle of recruiting and transfer portal acquisitions for him to get this program off the ground. Spartan faithful will be a big fan of his philosophy coming into East Lansing.
Will Iowa manage to score 20 points on offense this year? Probably not, but we know Kirk Ferentz will produce a hard-nosed winning football team every season, even if they have to score all their points on defense and special teams.
The Hawkeyes do lose some pieces on defense, highlighted by Cooper Dejean. Despite this, they return loads of quality production and will keep Iowa in every game, again.
Tim Lester enters as offensive coordinator, he spent last season as a senior analyst in the NFL with the Green Bay Packers. He can’t possibly be worse than what they’ve had in recent years, but I am still accustomed to the unit averaging around 15 points a game.
Luckily for Ferentz, the Hawkeyes drew an extremely favorable schedule. They get Iowa State, Washington, Wisconsin, and Nebraska at home with Ohio State and Michigan State on the road. They are not slated to face Michigan, Oregon, or Penn State in the regular season.
I expect the same thing as every Iowa team, elite defense with a nonexistent offense. With this schedule and returning pieces, they likely win nine-plus games once again and contend to be in the Big-10 championship game, somehow.
These next two teams are interesting, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Both teams return elite defensive units and a head coach entering their second year with their respective programs.
We’ll start with Matt Rhule and the Cornhuskers. Imagine if Big Red got rolling again in the current college football landscape, it would be electric.
Rhule has a proven track record as a collegiate program builder, just take a look at what he did at Temple and Baylor before his forgettable time in the NFL with the Carolina Panthers. Every team he’s coached has taken an exponential leap in his second season.
Offensively, they’ll be led by five-star true freshman QB Dylan Raiola. He posts one of the most electric arms in the class and could be the best player at that position for Nebraska in a long time. The staff brought in some solid transfer portal pieces at the skill positions as well.
The schedule is in the middle. They get Colorado, Rutgers, and Wisconsin at home. The road schedule however isn’t too friendly, as they are slated to face Ohio State, USC, and Iowa. They do not face Penn State, Michigan, Michigan, State, Oregon, or Washington.
I expect this program to take a massive leap forward in 2024. In year two under Matt Rhule with Raiola at quarterback combined with that schedule, they could easily win eight or nine games this season. Like I said, imagine if Big Red gets rolling again.
Now for Wisconsin. Luke Fickell is entering his second season at the helm after coming over from Cincinnati last season. The Badgers were mediocre in 2023, finishing with a 7-6 record (5-4 in conference play) and placed as high as 19th in the AP Poll.
Same deal with Matt Rhule, expect a massive jump in year two. Fickell is another proven talent developer and program builder, I mean the dude managed to get Cincinnati into the four-team playoff bracket in 2021.
Tyler Van Dyke transfers in from Miami to be the full-time starting quarterback. We’ve seen over the last few years that when healthy, Van Dyke can sling the rock. I believe the change of scenery and ideology will breed the best season of his collegiate career.
The Badger's schedule is interesting. They have a home matchup with Alabama in the middle of September, with Penn State and Oregon also at home. The road schedule isn’t the worst: USC, Rutgers, Iowa, and Nebraska. They do not face Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, or Washington in the regular season.
If Tyler Van Dyke can stay on the field and perform to the level he is capable of, Wisconsin is another team that can contend to win eight to nine games. 2025 will be the big year in Madison, once Fickell has two full offseason cycles of recruiting and the transfer portal.
Watch out for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in 2024. Greg Schiano enters his fifth season at the helm in New Brunswick, looking to build on the 7-6 campaign in 2023, the best season for the program and first bowl win since 2014. This team is going to fly under the radar.
Offensively, the roster doesn’t possess many marquee names outside of RB Kyle Monangai. In 2023, he ran for over 1,200 yards at 5.2 yards per carry with eight touchdowns. Similar to last season, they’ll be a physical ground-and-pound unit that wears you out.
Defensively, they return 10 of 13 starters from the 2023 team. The Scarlet Knights ranked top 20 in pass defense overall and EPA allowed per play last season. This unit should be strong.
Quarterback will be the big question for this team with Gavin Wimsatt transferring to Kentucky. The staff brought in Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis as the starter; he posted just a 58.2 PFF passing grade in the 2023 season.
The Scarlet Knights drew the best schedule in the entire conference. They get Washington and Wisconsin at home with Virginia Tech, Nebraska, USC, and Michigan State on the road. They do not face Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, or Iowa in 2024.
Now onto the teams joining UCLA at the bottom of the conference: Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue. Illinois could be interesting with Brett Bielema entering his fourth season as head coach with some of those offensive weapons.
Indiana won’t be great this season, but Curt Cignetti could build something special in Bloomington. He came over from James Madison and brought a ton of his players with him.
Maryland might be interesting with MJ Morris transferring in at quarterback from NC State, but nothing special.
I expect Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue to compete for the worst record in the conference in 2024.
This conference will be at the top of college football in 2024 alongside the SEC with four newcomers from the West Coast: UCLA, USC, Washington, and Oregon. With the expanded playoff bracket, we may see four teams secure a berth.
Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State will be the top dogs with teams like USC, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa in that next tier. It will be a fun year once again in the Big 10.