The Big 12 could be one of the most competitive conferences among the power four in college football this season. With Texas and Oklahoma off to SEC country, the conference welcomes four newcomers: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah. The conference has seen a different champion every year since 2020 and hasn’t had an undefeated champ since Oklahoma in 2016. Let’s dive right in.
Let’s start with the conference newcomers, beginning with Arizona. In 2023, the program accomplished its first double-digit win season since 2010 and first winning record since 2017 that finalized in a 38-24 Alamo Bowl win over Oklahoma.
Jedd Fisch did a remarkable job revitalizing the desert storm, but he’s now off to Washington to take over for Kalen DeBoer. Brett Brennan enters his first year at the helm of Arizona, coming over from San Jose State University where he led the Spartans to three bowl game appearances and earned the 2020 Mountain West Coach of the Year. Brennan will face a difficult task in his inaugural year, as 10 impact players from last year’s roster hopped on the bus and followed Fisch to Washington.
Luckily, he returns the dynamic duo on offense from a year ago with Noah Fifita at quarterback and Tetairoa McMillan at wide receiver.
The Wildcats schedule isn’t entirely unbearable. They drew Colorado, Texas Tech, and West Virginia at home while drawing Kansas State, Utah, and UCF on the road. They are not slated to face Kansas, Iowa State, or Oklahoma State in the regular season.
I’m looking to the 2025 season in Arizona, giving Brennan a full offseason cycle of recruiting and the transfer portal. The offense should be fun to watch, the duo of Fifita and McMillan alone will make them competitive every week.
Staying in The Grand Canyon State, we’ll move to Tempe and look at the Arizona State Sun Devils. Kenny Dillingham enters his second season at the helm, his first season went the same as Herm Edwards' final year, a 3-9 record (2-7 in conference).
Dillingham is recognized as one of the better offensive minds in the country, having spent time as offensive coordinator at Oregon and Florida State before taking the job in Tempe.
I was higher on this program going into the 2024 season earlier this year before QB Jaden Rashada opted to transfer to Georgia. Jeff Sims transfers in from Nebraska and will compete for the starting job, a guy who's struggled with consistency in his career.
I’m not expecting much from this team, they may steal a game or two in a night game at home but otherwise, it’ll be mediocre. Look to year three for Dillingham and company.
Does Colorado and Prime Time achieve the program's first winning season 2016? Boulder hasn’t seen a team achieve more than four wins since 2019, this could be the year.
We're all aware of the hype surrounding Colorado, it’s not to the same extent as last year but still boasts that same degree of excitement. Let’s take a look at them.
Shedeur Sanders is back at quarterback, he projects to be a Heisman trophy finalist and one of the best players in the country this season. Travis Hunter is back as well, he’ll be an All-American. These two studs alone will make them must-see TV.
The goal going into the offseason for the staff was to boost the depth and talent in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They brought in tons of power four talent, but the question for me is the development of this talent.
They’ll be explosive on offense again, they return several of their key skill players and brought in Pat Shurmur as offensive coordinator. The former Cleveland Browns and New York Giants head coach will be tasked with protecting his ace at quarterback.
The schedule isn’t the friendliest. They face Nebraska, UCF, Texas Tech, and Kansas all on the road, but draw Kansas State, Utah, and Texas Tech at home in Boulder.
If the offensive line and defensive units even marginally improve, the Buffalos should be going bowling and have their best season as a program since 2016.
For the last of the newcomers, we’re gonna take a trip over to Salt Lake City, Utah. To this day, Kyle Whittingham is still one of the most underrated and underappreciated head coaches in college football. After taking the job in 2004, the Utes have won nine or more games in 12 seasons, and two Pac-12 championships since 2021.
They enter the Big 12 conference as the odds-on favorite to win the title, and project to be a team in the thick of the hunt for a college football playoff berth.
Cam Rising is back at quarterback for what feels like his 19th season. The former First-Team All-Pac-12 signal caller will return to the field after missing almost the entire 2023 season with a knee injury. When healthy, Rising is a dual-threat difference-maker worthy of being in conversations surrounding the best quarterbacks in the country.
The defense will be one of the best units in the nation, it’s been their calling card under Whittingham for years now. If you need evidence just put on the tape of their games vs the Caleb Williams-led USC Trojans to see an absolute coaching clinic.
Offensively it won’t be fireworks, but they will be efficient and feature an old-school ground-and-pound attack with play action off of it. They lose their lead tailback Ja’Quinden Jackson to the transfer portal, but in turn, bring in Dorian Singer at receiver from USC. Singer will provide a dynamic and explosive athlete on the perimeter, an archetype not commonly known to the Salt Lake City territories.
The schedule is extremely favorable. The first true test will come in a late September matchup against Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Outside of that, Utah might not lose a game. The only tough matchup at home they draw is against Iowa State in late November. The road schedule also consists of Colorado and UCF.
If Cam Rising is healthy at quarterback and Kyle Whittingham is as head coach, I fully expect this team to be at the top of the conference and compete for one of the top seeds in the revamped college football playoff bracket.
What’s going on in Wako, Texas with the Baylor Bears? Dave Aranda enters his fifth season as head coach and might be on the hot seat. His second season saw Baylor achieve a 12-2 record, a Big-12 conference title, and a Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss.
Outside of that 2021 run, it’s been a lot of mediocrity with just nine wins since. Despite the last two seasons, I’m a Dave Aranda supporter and will go down with the ship.
Aranda and his staff hit the portal hard this offseason, completely revamping the offense. In the trenches, they brought in five new faces and landed a potential stud at quarterback in Toledo transfer Dequann Finn. Michael Trigg at tight end is another under-the-radar portal acquisition, coming over from Ole Miss.
Outside of that, the roster is mediocre overall. Expect Dequann Finn to carry the load to keep Baylor in every game and provide explosive production on offense.
The schedule is an absolute gauntlet. The Bears are on the road against Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, West Virginia, and Texas Tech. They drew two favorable home matchups in Oklahoma State Kansas, but will likely open as close to double-digit underdogs in both of those games.
As I said, I’m a Dave Aranda supporter. Despite that, I think this will be his last season at Baylor unless Dequann Finn plays like one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
We’re gonna shuffle back over to Utah, this time to Provo to analyze Brigham Young University. Kalani Sitake returns as head coach for his ninth season with the program. Under his tenure, BYU has been mediocre outside of those two seasons with Zach Wilson at quarterback where the Cougars went 21-4 in that span.
I expect mediocrity once again in Provo. The roster just does not feature enough marquee talent to compete in this deep Big-12 conference.
The schedule is another doozy, they draw UCF and Utah on the road. The home slate is rough: Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State. Even with the lack of talent on the roster, be careful overlooking the Cougars at home. LaVell Edwards Stadium is a sneaky difficult place to play, especially at night.
They’ll finish in the bottom tier of the conference, and possibly be looking elsewhere at head coach entering the 2025 season.
Cincinnati is another bottom-tier program in the conference this year. Scott Satterfield returns for his second season as head coach for the Bearcats. Most people, including myself, took this program off their national radar following former head coach Luke Fickell’s departure from Wisconsin after the 2022 season.
Once again I’ll be doing so, I do not expect this team to compete with the rest of this conference. This year’s roster saw over 30 players from the 2023 campaign exit the program, it’s gonna take a few years of exponential growth to see them compete.
The Houston Cougars are going to be a thorn in everyone’s side in 2024. Willie Fritz enters his first season as head coach, coming over from Tulane. Fritz spent the past eight seasons with the Green Wave, going 23-5 with back-to-back American Conference championships and a 2022 Cotton Bowl victory over the Caleb Williams-led USC.
The roster is highlighted by quarterback Donovan Smith, an uber-talented dual-threat signal caller who can take over the game at any moment, but also lose the game in the blink of an eye. Get your popcorn ready for the Donovan Smith experience.
Outside of Smith, the roster is pretty bone dry. The staff was proactive in the portal and brought in a ton of guys who will be required to start from day one of camp.
It won’t be fireworks from the jump, but fully expect Fritz to build this program into a contender in the Big 12 over the next couple of years. Fritz is a proven recruiter and talent developer and now enters a hotbed for talent acquisition in Houston, Texas.
Was Texas-Christian University the biggest one-year wonder of all time? Sonny Dykes enters his third season in Fort Worth, in need of a winning season after a 7-5 campaign in 2023. The 2022 run to the national championship was an electric ride, but that was a lot of Gary Patterson’s players and recruits. Dykes needs to prove to me that he can recruit and develop his talent entering the program.
The roster is interesting, they added tons of players at key positions through the transfer portal and return Josh Hoover plus Trey Sanders at quarterback and running back respectively. The offense features solid athletes on the outside as well.
I’m not going to buy a ton of stock into this program, but I believe Sonny Dykes is one of the better coaches in the country and will get Fort Worth back on track at some point. At least they’ll have a few weeks during the year where they have the best uniforms across the college football landscape.
2024 is going to be a fun year to watch in Morgantown, West Virginia. Neal Brown returns as head coach for his sixth season with the Mountaineers. After entering 2023 on the hot seat, Brown saved his job with a 9-4 season capped off with a win in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. This marked the first winning season for the program since 2018 when Will Grier was at quarterback.
West Virginia will be a great rushing offense again with QB Garrett Greene, RB Jaheim White, and RB CJ Donaldson Jr. all returning to the program. This trio ran for over 2,400 yards and 6.3 yards per carry in 2023, hope you love the triple option game. Defensively they’ll be solid, this unit was serviceable in most games last year.
The Mountaineer's schedule is in the middle. They open the season with a home matchup vs Penn State, a sneaky spot to back the home underdog. At home, they also drew Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and UCF. The road schedule is very favorable, with the only tough matchups being Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
If the three-headed monster in the backfield stays healthy and they can at least split those four marquee home matchups, West Virginia could win nine games again.
Keep an eye on the UCF Golden Knights in the Big 12. They project to be another one of the teams in the thick of this conference. Gus Malzahn is back as head coach for his fourth season in Orlando, winning nine games in each of his first two years before the 6-7 campaign in 2023 after an 0-5 start to the season.
Malzahn’s offense will be explosive and efficient as always. The unit returns its leading rusher last season in RJ Harvey at running back. He went for over 1,400 yards and scored 16 touchdowns, propelling himself into a Doak Walker Award semifinalist.
The staff brought him in as a running mate in Toledo transfer Peny Boone, who went for 1,400 yards and scored 15 touchdowns last season for the Rockets.
The offense will be commanded by Arkansas QB transfer KJ Jefferson. In three seasons as the starter in Fayetteville, he threw over 7,400 yards with 64 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He also ran for 1,751 yards and 17 touchdowns in that span.
When healthy, Jefferson is a workhorse. His final season at Arkansas was a down year, but a lot of that was due to factors outside of his control. Expect him to bounce back.
Kobe Hudson is back at receiver, giving the offense a dynamic playmaker outside. The staff also brought in Agiye Hall from Texas in the transfer portal, giving them a quality duo on the perimeter.
The schedule for the Golden Knights is very favorable. They draw Colorado and Utah at home in the bounce house and face Florida, Iowa State, and West Virginia on the road. They are not slated to face Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, or Oklahoma State in the regular season.
With the mix of returning talent, portal acquisitions, and a favorable schedule we should expect UCF to climb up the Big-12 ladder and potentially compete for the title.
Texas Tech could be another interesting team to watch, but I don’t see them competing at the top of the Big-12 conference. Joey McGuire is back as head coach, and the offense returns Behren Morton and Tahj Brooks as quarterback and running back respectively.
Brooks ran for over 1,500 yards at 5.3 yards per carry with 10 touchdowns in 2023. He will once again be one of the best backs in the country this season.
The roster lost too many players from last year's roster for me to be high on the program in 2024, the absence of any marquee transfer portal acquisitions leaves holes on the roster to be filled.
They may steal a game or two at home in Lubbock, but I’m not expecting anything special. They likely will be a player in bowl season but won’t be contending otherwise.
Now let’s get into the returning Big-12 teams I believe will be competing with Utah at the top of the conference: Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma State. All four of these teams return loads of key talent at important positions.
We’ll begin in the Sunflower State, with the Kansas Jayhawks. That’s right, it’s not just a basketball school in Lawrence anymore. Lance Leipold enters his fourth season at the helm, improving every year he’s been there. The program went from 2-10 to 6-7 to 9-4 in his three years, placing as high as 19th in the AP Poll in 2023.
Leipold has garnered his reputation as an offensive technician, commanding one of the most unique systems in all of college football.
The offense returns all of its key guys: QB Jalon Daniels, RB Devin Neal, RB Daniel Hishaw Jr, WR Luke Grimm, WR Quentin Skinner, and WR Lawrence Arnold.
Daniels at quarterback has the talent and ability to be the best player in the entire conference when healthy, he missed a majority of last season due to injury.
Defensively they return their ace in cornerback Coby Bryant as well as several other contributors from last year’s roster. They should be serviceable on that side.
The schedule is favorable, as they don’t draw Utah or Oklahoma State in the regular season. The Jayhawks draw Iowa State and Colorado at home, with road matchups against Kansas State and West Virginia.
If all of the key offense pieces stay healthy, Kansas is a real player in the Big 12 and a potential sleeper team to secure a spot in the revamped college football playoff.
Staying in the Sunflower State, we’ll transition over to Manhattan and take a look at the Kansas State Wildcats. Chris Kliemen returns as head coach for his sixth season, achieving eight or more wins in four of his five previous seasons at the helm, including a Big-12 conference title in 2022.
Former four-star quarterback Avery Johnson will be the full-time starter in 2024, he saw playing time in eight games last season with Will Howard battling injuries. The young dual-threat is poised to be one of the better signal callers in the conference.
At running back they boast a pair of studs in returner DJ Giddens and Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards. The offense does lose its starting tight end and best offensive linemen to the NFL draft, but the staff is confident in the players they have on the roster.
The Wildcats draw a great schedule. They are not slated to face Utah in the regular season and draw Oklahoma State and Kansas at home. On the road, they face Colorado, West Virginia, and Iowa State.
If Avery Johnson is anything close to the talent he is projected to be, with those running backs and that coaching staff, I fully expect Kansas State to compete with the top of the Big-12 conference in 2024.
How good can the Iowa State Cyclones be in 2024? Matt Campbell enters his 9th season in Ames, he’s managed to make the worst power four job in America a real Big-12 conference contender. It’s not exactly a simple task to recruit athletes to Ames, Iowa.
The Cyclones lead the entire country in returning production, offensively they return QB Rocco Becht, RB Abu Sama III, WR Jayden Higgins, and WR Jaylin Noel. This was one of the most explosive units in the conference last season and will be again. Defensively they’ll be solid as always, it’s been their calling card under Matt Campbell and company. It sure helps having all of that returning production.
The Cyclones schedule is in the middle, they do not face Oklahoma State or Colorado in the regular season. At home, they get UCF, Texas Tech, and Kansas State with Iowa, West Virginia, Kansas, and Utah all on the road.
If Matt Campbell is coaching and this offense stays healthy, Iowa State is another team I am fully confident in competing at the top of the Big-12 conference in 2024.
For our final team, we are taking a trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma. The Cowboys are my pick to win the Big 12 conference in 2024 and secure a spot in the playoff.
Mike Gundy is still at the helm, entering his 20th season with Oklahoma State. The 2023 campaign saw the Cowboys finish 10-4 as the Big-12 conference runner-up following the title game loss to the Texas Longhorns.
This 2024 team will be a force to be reckoned with, they rank third nationally in returning production. The offense will be sensational this season, they return all 11 starters from last year’s team. The unit will be headlined by the 2023 Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon at running back. In 2023, he ran for over 1,700 yards at 6.1 yards per carry with 21 touchdowns.
The Cowboys are another team that draws an average strength of schedule. They are not slated to face Colorado or Kansas in the regular season. The home slate features matchups versus Arkansas, Utah, and West Virginia with Kansas State and Colorado on the road.
If Ollie Gordon is healthy and the defense can at least be serviceable, I fully expect this team to win around 10 games and be in the conference title game.
The Big 12 could be one of the most competitive conferences among the power four in college football this season. Teams among the likes of Utah, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State are all capable of winning this conference and securing a postseason berth. Expect absolute madness, as that’s the trademark of this conference year in and year out.