Lightning vs. Islanders Prediction & Picks - Oct. 10

The Tampa Bay Lightning (3-1) visit the New York Islanders (2-2) at UBS Arena on Saturday, Oct. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Lightning have won three games in a row.

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Before watching this matchup, here's our pick for which squad will secure the win in Saturday's hockey action.

Lightning vs. Islanders Predictions for Saturday

Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final result of Lightning 3, Islanders 2.

• Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-173)
• Total Pick: Under 5.5 (computer predicts 5.1 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Islanders (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning were 12-8-20 in overtime games as part of a 50-26-6 overall record last season.
• Tampa Bay was 14-12-6 (34 points) in its 32 games decided by one goal.
• In the 11 games last season the Lightning registered only one goal, they went 3-7-1 (seven points).
• Tampa Bay scored exactly two goals in 21 games last season (5-12-4 record, 14 points).
• The Lightning were 45-7-3 when they scored at least three goals (to register 93 points).
• In the 30 games when Tampa Bay recorded a single power-play goal, it registered 38 points by finishing 17-9-4.
• In the 51 games when it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay was 30-15-6 (66 points).
• The Lightning's opponent had more shots in 36 games last season. The Lightning finished 21-13-2 in those matchups (44 points).

Islanders Splits and Trends

• The Islanders had a 14-5-19 record in overtime games last season, and a 43-34-5 overall record.
• New York picked up 46 points (23-11-0) in its 34 games decided by one goal.
• Across the 15 games last season the Islanders ended up with only one goal, they picked up five points.
• New York picked up 19 points (9-11-1 record) last season when scoring exactly two goals .
• The Islanders picked up 65 points in their 43 games when they scored more than two goals.
• New York scored a single power-play goal in 24 games last season and recorded 32 points.
• When outshooting its opponent last season, New York was 14-20-4 (32 points).
• The Islanders' opponents had more shots in 39 games last season. The Islanders finished 26-13-0 in those contests (52 points).

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Team Stats Comparison (2025-26)

Lightning vs. Islanders Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: UBS Arena in Elmont, New York

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