Capitals vs. Lightning Prediction & Picks - Oct. 3

The Tampa Bay Lightning (0-1) host the Washington Capitals (1-0) at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday, Oct. 3 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Lightning fell to the New York Rangers 5-1 in their most recent game, while the Capitals are coming off a 5-2 victory over the Carolina Hurricanes.

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Here is our prediction for who will capture the victory in Saturday's matchup.

Capitals vs. Lightning Predictions for Saturday

Our computer model for this encounter expects a final result of Capitals 6, Lightning 0.

• Moneyline Pick: Capitals (+165)
• Total Pick: No Pick - Predicted Margin Negligible
• Spread Pick: Capitals (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning were 50-26-6 overall and 12-8-20 in overtime matchups last season.
• Tampa Bay picked up 34 points (14-12-6) in the 32 games it played that were decided by one goal.
• The 11 times last season the Lightning ended a game with only one goal, they went 3-7-1 (seven points).
• Tampa Bay scored exactly two goals in 21 games last season (5-12-4 record, 14 points).
• The Lightning scored at least three goals in 55 games (45-7-3, 93 points).
• In the 30 games when Tampa Bay scored a lone power-play goal, it registered 38 points by finishing 17-9-4.
• In the 51 games last season when it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay was 30-15-6 (66 points).
• The Lightning's opponent had more shots in 36 games last season. The Lightning finished 21-13-2 in those contests (44 points).

Capitals Splits and Trends

• The Capitals had a record of 43-30-9 last season and were 6-9-15 in overtime contests.
• In the 22 games Washington played that were decided by one goal, it picked up 25 points.
• Last season the Capitals scored only one goal in 10 games, and they picked up two points (1-9-0).
• Washington picked up 16 points (5-9-6 record) last season when scoring two goals .
• The Capitals scored three or more goals 49 times, accumulating 77 points (37-9-3).
• Washington scored a lone power-play goal in 27 games last season and registered 32 points.
• When outshooting its opponent last season, Washington was 21-13-3 (45 points).
• The Capitals' opponents had more shots in 39 games last season. The Capitals finished 20-14-5 in those contests (45 points).

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Team Stats Comparison (2025-26)

Capitals vs. Lightning Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida

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