Lightning vs. Senators Prediction & Picks - March 28

The Tampa Bay Lightning (44-21-6) host the Ottawa Senators (38-24-10) at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday, March 28 at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with both teams fresh off of a loss. The Lightning were defeated by the Seattle Kraken 4-3 in overtime in their last game, while the Senators are coming off a 4-3 shootout loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

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As hockey action continues, get ready for the contest by checking out which team we project to pick up the victory in Saturday's game.

The Senators have put up a 7-2-1 record over their last 10 contests. They have scored 30 total goals (seven power-play goals on 34 power-play opportunities during that time, for a conversion rate of 20.6%) while allowing 19 goals to their opponents.

Lightning vs. Senators Predictions for Saturday

Our computer projection model for this game calls for a final score of Lightning 4, Senators 2.

• Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-162)
• Total Pick: No Pick - Predicted Margin Negligible
• Spread Pick: Lightning (-1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning are 9-6-15 in overtime matchups as part of a 44-21-6 overall record.
• Tampa Bay has 20 points (8-9-4) in the 21 games it has played that were decided by one goal.
• In the seven games this season the Lightning scored only one goal, they went 2-4-1 (five points).
• Tampa Bay has taken 11 points from the 15 games this season when it scored a pair of goals (4-8-3 record).
• The Lightning are 38-7-2 in the 47 games when they have scored three or more goals (to register 78 points).
• In the 26 games when Tampa Bay has recorded a lone power-play goal, it went 16-7-3 to record 35 points.
• In the 40 games when it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 24-11-5 (53 points).
• The Lightning's opponents have had more shots in 29 games. The Lightning finished 18-10-1 in those matchups (37 points).

Senators Splits and Trends

• The Senators have earned a record of 6-10-16 in overtime matchups to contribute to an overall mark of 38-24-10.
• In the 32 games Ottawa has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 35 points.
• This season the Senators scored only one goal in nine games and they finished 0-8-1 in those matchups.
• Ottawa has 16 points (6-6-4) when scoring two goals this season.
• The Senators have scored more than two goals in 46 games, earning 69 points from those contests.
• Ottawa has scored a lone power-play goal in 26 games this season and has registered 35 points from those matchups.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Ottawa is 30-15-3 (63 points).
• The Senators' opponents have had more shots in 21 games. The Senators went 7-7-7 in those contests (21 points).

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Senators Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Saturday, March 28, 2026 at 1 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida

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