Lightning vs. Flames Prediction & Picks - March 22

The Tampa Bay Lightning (43-21-4) visit the Calgary Flames (28-34-7) at Scotiabank Saddledome on Sunday, March 22 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Lightning have won three games in a row.

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Before watching this matchup, here is our prediction for which squad will emerge victorious in Sunday's hockey action.

The Flames are 4-6-0 in their last 10 contests, scoring 24 goals while allowing 35 in that period. On 26 power-play opportunities during that span, they have scored three goals (11.5%).

Lightning vs. Flames Predictions for Sunday

Our computer model for this matchup predicts a final result of Lightning 4, Flames 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-179)
• Total Pick: Under 6.5 (computer predicts 5.7 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Flames (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning are 43-21-4 overall and 9-4-13 in overtime games.
• In the 19 games Tampa Bay has played that were decided by one goal, it has an 8-9-2 record (good for 18 points).
• In the seven games this season the Lightning scored just one goal, they went 2-4-1 (five points).
• Tampa Bay has taken 11 points from the 15 games this season when it scored exactly two goals (4-8-3 record).
• The Lightning are 37-7-0 in the 44 games when they have scored three or more goals (to register 74 points).
• In the 25 games when Tampa Bay has scored a lone power-play goal, it went 16-7-2 to record 34 points.
• In the 37 games when it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 23-11-3 (49 points).
• The Lightning have been outshot by opponents 29 times, and went 18-10-1 (37 points).

Flames Splits and Trends

• The Flames have a 28-34-7 record this season and are 5-7-12 in contests that have needed overtime.
• In the 19 games Calgary has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 22 points.
• This season the Flames recorded just one goal in 18 games and have gone 1-15-2 (four points).
• Calgary has earned 15 points (7-8-1 record) this season when scoring exactly two goals .
• The Flames have earned 43 points in their 30 games with three or more goals scored.
• Calgary has scored a single power-play goal in 17 games this season and has registered 17 points from those matchups.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Calgary is 11-15-3 (25 points).
• The Flames' opponents have had more shots in 38 games. The Flames went 16-18-4 in those contests (36 points).

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Flames Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Sunday, March 22, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta

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