The Tampa Bay Lightning and Ottawa Senators square off at Benchmark International Arena for the first game of the season on Thursday, Oct. 9 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
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As the puck drops for the start of the NHL season, here's who we project to secure the win in Thursday's action.
Lightning vs. Senators Predictions for Thursday
Our computer projection model for this matchup calls for a final score of Lightning 4, Senators 2.
- Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-179)
- Total Pick: No Pick - Predicted Margin Negligible
- Spread Pick: Lightning (-1.5)
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Lightning Splits and Trends
- The Lightning were 6-8-14 in overtime games as part of a 47-27-8 overall record last season.
- Tampa Bay picked up 21 points (8-9-5) in the 22 games it played that were decided by one goal.
- In the nine games last season the Lightning registered only one goal, they finished 0-8-1.
- Tampa Bay finished 2-11-3 in the 16 games last season when it scored exactly two goals (registering seven points).
- The Lightning scored more than two goals in 58 games (46-8-4, 96 points).
- In the 33 games when Tampa Bay recorded a single power-play goal, it went 22-10-1 to register 45 points.
- When it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay was 25-18-0 (50 points).
- The Lightning's opponent had more shots in 40 games last season. The Lightning finished 22-10-8 in those matchups (52 points).
Senators Splits and Trends
- The Senators had a 45-30-7 record last season, and were 11-9-20 in contests that went to overtime.
- Ottawa picked up 51 points (22-6-7) in its 35 games decided by one goal.
- Last season the Senators scored just one goal in nine games, and they lost every time.
- When Ottawa scored two goals last season, they amassed 15 points (6-13-3 record).
- The Senators picked up 86 points in their 50 games when they scored three or more goals.
- Last season Ottawa recorded a single power-play goal in 30 games, posting a record of 16-10-4.
- When outshooting its opponent last season, Ottawa was 21-14-3 (45 points).
- The Senators' opponents had more shots in 43 games last season. The Senators went 24-15-4 in those contests (52 points).
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Team Stats Comparison (2024-25)
| Lightning Rank | Lightning AVG | Senators AVG | Senators Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3.56 | Goals Scored | 2.95 | 18th |
| 4th | 2.63 | Goals Allowed | 2.83 | 13th |
| 12th | 28.5 | Shots | 29.3 | 8th |
| 14th | 28.1 | Shots Allowed | 28.6 | 18th |
| 5th | 25.86% | Power Play % | 23.7% | 13th |
| 6th | 81.55% | Penalty Kill % | 77.73% | 19th |
Lightning vs. Senators Game Time and TV Channel
- When: Thursday, October 9, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN+
- Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
- Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
- Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida
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