Panthers vs. Lightning Prediction & Picks - NHL Playoffs First Round Game 4

The Florida Panthers take the ice in Game 4 of the NHL Playoffs First Round against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amerant Bank Arena on Monday, April 28, starting at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Panthers are ahead in the series 2-1. The Panthers are favored (-139) against the Lightning (+117).

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Ahead of watching this matchup, here's a glimpse at which team we pick to bring home the victory in Monday's NHL Playoffs First Round action.

Panthers vs. Lightning Predictions for Monday

Our computer projection model for this encounter expects a final result of Panthers 4, Lightning 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Panthers (-139)
• Total Pick: Over 5.5 (computer predicts 6 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Lightning (+1.5)

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Panthers Splits and Trends

• The Panthers have a 47-31-4 record overall, with a 10-4-14 record in matchups that have needed overtime.
• In the 21 games Florida has played that were decided by one goal, it has an 11-6-4 record (good for 26 points).
• Looking at the 17 times this season the Panthers finished a game with only one goal, they have a 3-14-0 record, good for six points.
• Florida has scored a pair of goals in 15 games this season (6-7-2 record, 14 points).
• The Panthers have scored more than two goals in 48 games (40-6-2, 82 points).
• In the 37 games when Florida has recorded a lone power-play goal, it has a 24-9-4 record (52 points).
• In the 56 games when it outshot its opponent, Florida is 32-21-3 (67 points).
• The Panthers have been outshot by opponents 21 times, and went 11-9-1 (23 points).

Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning have a 6-8-14 record in overtime games this season and a 47-27-8 overall record.
• Tampa Bay has earned 21 points (8-9-5) in its 22 games decided by one goal.
• This season the Lightning recorded only one goal in nine games and they finished 0-8-1 in those matchups.
• When Tampa Bay has scored exactly two goals this season, they've earned seven points (2-10-3 record).
• The Lightning have scored at least three goals in 57 games, earning 96 points from those contests.
• This season, Tampa Bay has capitalized on a lone power-play goal in 32 games has a record of 22-9-1 in those matchups.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Tampa Bay is 25-18-0 (50 points).
• The Lightning have been outshot by opponents in 38 games, going 22-8-8 to record 52 points.

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Team Stats Comparison

Panthers vs. Lightning Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Monday, April 28, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN
• Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida

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