The Florida Gators and #2 Georgia Bulldogs are set to face off in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville on Saturday at 3:30 PM ET.
Georgia has dominated this rivalry recently, winning three straight and six of the last seven, with Florida's previous win coming in 2020.
The Dawgs are currently at 16.5 point favorite and the game total is set at 52.5.
While a more casual fan may see this matchup and assume, "Oh, Georgia has won three straight games by 20+ points, and Florida was that team I watched get drummed by Miami to open the year. The Bulldogs should run away with this one."
Do not fall into this trap; Florida can win this game.
You may look at the Gators' record, see 4-3, and think they are just a bottom-of-the-barrel SEC team. You would be wrong. They have three losses, all to AP-ranked top-10 teams.
- 41-17 Loss vs #5 Miami (8-0)
- 33-20 Loss vs #10 Texas A&M (7-1)
- 23-17 OT Loss vs #7 Tennessee (6-1)
The Gators have won three of their last four, played much better football, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, and held opposing offenses to an average of 18.6 points per game since the bye week.
The Gators have vastly improved in what I call "havoc-creating stats" - turnovers, third-down efficiency, and sacks.
Since the bye week following the Mississippi State win, the Gators have forced an average of two turnovers and three sacks per game and have held opposing offenses to 12/40 (30%) on third down.
Let's not ignore that Carson Beck has had serious turnover issues for several weeks now - 2+ turnovers in three out of the last four games with two games of 3+.
Florida's defense's concern is stopping the run. While Georgia has experienced its struggles creating explosives on the ground, this could be the matchup where the Dawgs' run game finds its groove.
On the season, Florida's rush defense ranks:
- #131 Rush Attempts/Game - 43.8 per
- #104 Rush Yards/Game - 181.5 per
- #54 Yards/Rush - 4.1 per
While the Florida run defense was formidable vs. UCF, a top-10 rushing offense, and was strong vs. Tennessee early, we saw that second half in Neyland, where the Volunteers just forced it downhill at the Gators en route to a comeback overtime win. This will be a crucial matchup to watch.
As stated above, Georgia's offense has struggled to find consistency on the ground:
- #117 Rush Play % - 43.55%
- #95 Rush Yards/Game - 124.3 per
- #76 Yards/Carry - #76
It would be responsible to expect an uptick in rushing production with All-American OL Tate Ratledge hopeful of returning to the gridiron on Saturday after being sidelined since leaving the Kentucky game.
Florida transfer RB Trevor Etienne has hit his stride the last few weeks; against Texas, he had 110 total yards and three touchdowns.
The biggest x-factor in this game is Florida's true freshman signal-caller, DJ Lagway.
With Graham Mertz suffering a torn ACL in the Tennessee game, the two-quarterback system is no longer used in Gainesville; it's the Lagway show.
As we saw Jalen Milroe do vs. Georgia, a few weeks ago, Lagway will need to make plays with his legs. A beat-up Florida offensive line is likely to struggle vs a Georgia front seven that has played exponentially better the last three weeks. You will know in the first quarter if Florida can block.
It will be interesting to see how Kirby Smart's defense approaches the dual-threat factor. In the first half, the Crimson Tide abused the outside run game with Milroe before the Dawgs adjusted after halftime.
I believe that Lagway will find success through the air, particularly downfield. Florida has one of the most underrated expansive receiver rooms in the entire country, with several guys who can score from anywhere on the field.
With the emergence of Arizona State transfer Elijah Badger, Chimere Dike, and a healthy Eugene Wilson III, the Gators have seen a dramatic uptick in their explosive play rate.
Looking at the Kentucky game, Lagway and company converted on five passes of 40+ yards, including two 50+ yard passes to Elijah Badger. The kid throws a gorgeous deep ball.
Is it likely that this performance will be replicated against Georgia? No, but it is plausible given what we've seen from the Bulldogs' secondary this year.
Georgia's pass defense ranks:
- #120 Opponent Pass Play % - 54.23%
- #67 Pass Yards/Game - 227.7 per
- #43 Yards/Pass - 6.7 per
- #59 Opponent Completion % - 60.59%
Remember, this is the same secondary that allowed Mississippi State to record 11 passes of 10+ yards, six passes of 20+ yards, and three passes of 30+ yards; explosives are there to be had. Can Florida connect on them enough? That is the question to be answered.
Florida's path to victory includes connecting on explosives in the passing game, standing tall against the Georgia rushing attack, and continuing the trend of third-down efficiency and havoc-wreaking plays.
It's the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and while plentiful individuals will be basking in the delights of tailgate festivities, make sure to get that popcorn ready for Saturday afternoon; it should be a good one.