The Georgia Bulldogs (2-0) travel to Lexington for a primetime matchup with the Kentucky Wildcats (1-1) to open SEC play.
The Bulldogs are -23.5 point favorites, with the total set at 45.5.
Georgia has won the last 14 meetings and is 6-4 against the spread in this matchup in the previous ten meetings.
While the matchup has been very lopsided in Georgia's favor, the Bulldogs haven't had the easiest time playing in Lexington:
- 2022: Georgia 16-6
- 2020: Georgia 14-3
- 2018: Georgia 34-17
- 2016: Georgia 27-24
I would argue that those were far better Kentucky teams than the 2024 edition. This year's Kentucky team could get blown out on Saturday.
Kentucky's Offensive Rankings Through Two Games
- 18.5 Points/Game (#84)
- 250.0 Yards/Game (#110)
- 4.5 Yards/Play (#90)
- 106.5 Pass Yards/Game (#117)
- 143.5 Rush Yards/Game (#65)
- 12.50% Sack Rate (#116)
- 31.58% 3D Conversion Rate (#79)
This offensive system has been a massive letdown through two weeks. The Kentucky faithful were excited about the potential offense seen with Brock Vandergriff at quarterback.
Brock Vandergriff transferred to Kentucky from Georgia during the offseason. Vandergriff was a five-star recruit out of high school; he was the No. 17 nationally-ranked player and No. 4 quarterback prospect in the 2021 recruiting cycle.
Through two games, Vandergriff has completed 15/28 (53.6%) passes for 199 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.
The offense misses Ray Davis at running back, who is now off in the NFL. The unit has talent on the perimeter in Dane Key and Barion Brown, but we haven't seen the offense click together yet, and this is not precisely what you might call a get-right game.
The offensive line is a huge mismatch. This unit was dominated by South Carolina last week in a game in which the offense totaled 183 yards, just 44 passing yards on six total completions.
This team plays at an extremely slow tempo, one of the slowest in the FBS through two weeks. While ball control is always a good idea, it's impossible if you can't convert on third down and extend drives.
If this unit scored only six points against South Carolina last week, I would not back the Wildcats' offense on Saturday against Georgia.
Kentucky's Defensive Rankings Through Two Games
- 15.5 Points/Game (#36)
- 191.5 Yards/Game (#7)
- 4.4 Yards/Play (#35)
- 149.5 Pass Yards/Game (#33)
- 42.0 Rush Yards/Game (#8)
- 15.00% Sack Rate (#6)
- 33.33% 3D Conversion Rate (#52)
While yes, statistically, they rank well, the Kentucky defense hasn't seen a high-caliber offense yet. Despite the blowout, South Carolina only totaled 252 yards on offense. The first game was against Southern Miss, so take that how you will.
Expect Georgia to come out and set the tone at the line of scrimmage, get the ground game going, and then explode as the game goes on. The Bulldogs can realistically win this game if they score 20 points, and they might not even need that much.
Georgia's Offensive Rankings Through Two Games
- 34.0 Points/Game (#29)
- 447.0 Yards/Game (#36)
- 7.3 Yards/Play (#10)
- 278.0 Pass Yards/Game (#28)
- 169.0 Rush Yards/Game (#46)
- 2.94% Sack Rate (#46)
- 36.36% 3D Conversion Rate (#64)
The Mean Machine is rolling on offense. Expect this offensive line to dominate; the Bulldogs could rush for over 200 yards with ease.
Carson Beck, as we all know, has been great. Expect him to continue his Heisman hopeful campaign on Saturday night.
I don't have any concerns for this unit in this matchup. As stated earlier, if they score at least 20 points they will win this ball game.
Georgia's Defensive Rankings Through Two Games
- 3.0 Points/Game (#3)
- 188.0 Yards/Game (#6)
- 3.5 Yards/Play (#10)
- 142.0 Pass Yards/Game (#28)
- 46.0 Rush Yards/Game (#11)
- 12.50% Sack Rate (#116)
- 30.77% 3D Conversion Rate (#40)
Georgia's defense could hold Kentucky to under 100 yards of offensive production. This front seven, while beat up, is still more talented than any team this Kentucky offense will face in 2024, not to mention bolstering one of the best secondary's in the country. It will take Brock Vandergriff putting on a Heisman performance to score on this defense.
The Bulldogs are beat up in the trenches:
- Mykel Williams, DL, Doubtful
- Jordan Hall, DL, Questionable
- Xzavier McLeod, DL, Questionable
- Warren Brinson, DL, Questionable
Despite the lack of depth they might have, Kentucky is missing three starting offensive lineman. The backups and young guys should have a great opportunity to put their talents on tape for the coaching staff.
Prediction: Georgia 35-3
Georgia is set to kick off at Kentucky on Saturday at 7:30 PM EST.